Zenyatta Beats The Boys
She didn't like getting into the starting gate, and she had to do it twice. She got off to a terrible start, even by her own slow standards.
And going through the final turn, she was in 11th place.
Zenyatta has a lot ... a lot of ground to make up. Zenyatta, if she wins this, she'll be a super horse. She's starting to pick them off though. Zenyatta going to hook to the outside. Meanwhile, it's Colonel John and Summer Bird in the red cap ... and Zenyatta's come to the outside! Zenyatta coming flying on the grandstand side! Gio Ponti on the inside, Summer Bird is right there ... this is UN-BEE-LEE-VABLE! ZENYATTA! What a performance! This is one we'll never forget! It looked impossible, but it is Zenyatta! Still unbeaten!
Rachel Alexandra has probably had the greatest year ever by a filly - the accomplishments are just incredible. When she ran against other females, she set track records. She set records for biggest margins of victory in two of the biggest 3-year-old filly races of the year. Then she beat the boys in the Preakness, and again in the Haskell. And then she went against older males in the Woodward Stakes, and became the first filly to win ever that race. Heck, she was only the second 3-year-old of any gender to win it since 1990.
But she didn't come to the Breeders' Cup. It was 5-year-old Zenyatta as the token mare in the Classic. She was 13-for-13 against other females, but she'd never raced against male horses. On paper, she wasn't as fast as many of the males. If anything, it looked like she had missed her best chance last year, when her owners chose to race in her the Ladies' Classic. Apparently, no one told her any of that.
Is Zenyatta the greatest female horse ever? Probably not. But you know what? She's beaten every horse they've ever put in a gate beside her, and when it comes to females that have won the Breeders' Cup Classic, the list begins and ends with her.
Breeders’ Cup – Turf & Classic
Well, the system didn't do too well with the Fake Dirt Mile. It did have Furthest Land as its fourth highest-ranked horse, but it really thought it was a two-horse race. Mastercraftsman looked sure to win with 200 yards to go - he was flying up along the rail - but he just stopped and finished third. Bullsbay got stuck in traffic and was never a factor.
Now comes the two biggest races of the weekend - the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Unfortunately, this isn't a great year for the Turf. The best European horse, Sea The Stars, has already been retired to stud. The second-best, Rip Van Winkle, is in the Classic.
So that leaves Conduit. He won this race on the same track last year, and he appears to be much better than anyone else in this field. Monzante is probably the best long-shot pick in a seven-horse field.
Then comes the Classic. This could have been the most-anticipated race in decades - European superstar Sea The Stars vs. filly megastar Rachel Alexandra vs. undefeated mare Zenyatta vs. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird vs. Belmont winner Summer Bird.
As I mentioned, Sea The Stars is already at stud, and Jess Jackson is giving Rachel Alexandra the rest of the year off after what is probably the best year a 3-year-old filly has ever had. So now we've got the Birds vs. Zenyatta, with an added bonus of the horse that's been chasing Sea The Stars home all year, Rip Van Winkle.
Mine That Bird won the Derby, finished second to Rachel in a thrilling Preakness and third in the Belmont, but hasn't looked good since. Zenyatta's record is easy to read: 13 races, 13 wins. But she's never faced a male horse in her career, and she's never run the speed figures that Rachel put up in her magical summer. I suspect she's in way over her head here.
Rip Van Winkle is very good, and European horses do better on the California synthetic dirt than they do on the real stuff, but there's a reason he's been chasing Sea The Stars all year. He's a step below the Euro superstars, and he's supposedly got a sore foot.
Einstein is my favorite horse - he's been great for a couple years and he can win on every surface. If I were betting, I'd have $2 on him, partially out of sentiment, and partially because he's still a very good horse.
Gio Ponti is probably America's best turf horse. This race isn't on turf.
Quality Road and Twice Over are very intriguing long shots. Quality Road has been close behind Summer Bird in his last two races, and Twice Over has looked very good in Europe since a 7th-place finish in May in a field that included Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle *and* Conduit.
But there's an outstanding horse in this race, and thanks to all the money being dumped on Zenyatta, he's also a good bet. Summer Bird won the Belmont, but that was just the first act of his summer. Since then, he's run in three big races - the Haskell, the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He came out with two wins and a second, and the second was to Rachel Alexandra.
Rachel's back east in her barn today, so I think Summer Bird is the best bet.
Breeders’ Cup – Dirt Mile
Yeah. Goldikova got pushed back early, had to go way wide in the final stretch, got bumped by Courageous Cat and still won going away.
Now comes the (fake) Dirt Mile. My system has this as a two-horse race - Midshipman and Bullsbay are miles ahead of the field. Between them, they've probably got at least an 80% chance of winning this race. For $8, I can bet each of them to win, and bet them in a $2 exacta box. I'll take that.
Breeders’ Cup – Turf Mile
So far, my system has identified California Flag, Dancing in Silks and Vale of York has good value bets. A $2 bet on each of them would have returned a total of over $120 for a $6 investment. That's pretty impressive.
So now the Turf Mile. Golidkova is the defending champ and she (yes, she) is the defending champ. She's won 3-of-5 in Europe this year, with the most recent loss by just a half-length. Unfortunately, while she's the most obvious winner, she's not much of a bet because everyone else knows what she did last year and how good she's been this year.
So you could take the easy money on Goldikova or go for a little value with Ferneley, another Irish horse that has been racing very well in North America this year.
Breeders’ Cup – Juvenile
Zensational got a bad start, got trapped on the rail, and never had a chance. Racing luck. My numbers had Dancing In Silks as the third choice, and as great value for money, so that's encouraging anyway.
Now the Juvenile, which will set up the early favorite for next May's Kentucky Derby. Sadly, given the fact of the current thoroughbred industry, the winner today probably won't be healthy enough for the race next year, but we'll see what happens.
My system likes two horses - D'Funnybone and Vale of York. The big favorite is Lookin at Lucky, but he's on the outside post and that's going to be tough to overcome. D'Funnybone is going to jump out early and by the time Lookin at Lucky can get over to the rail, I think it will be too late. Watch for Beethoven closing at the end.
Breeders’s Cup – Sprint
Zensational has the rail and has early speed. If the synthetic Pro-Ride surface plays as fast as it did yesterday, there's the chance of Fatal Bullet getting away at the start and going wire-to-wire, but I suspect Zensational will keep in touch with Fatal Bullet and have enough to put him away at the finish.
Captain Candyman for second, and Fatal Bullet hangs on for third.
First Race at Pinnacle
Pinnacle Race Course, the new thororoughbred track in metro Detroit, opens on Friday at 2:30.
The first race is the Lansing Stakes, a six-furlong sprint for Michigan-bred 3-year-olds.
For the sake of history, here is the field:
- Hot Chili J: T.D. Houghton. T: Laura Jackson.
- Dance In The Sea J: Frederico Mata. T: Ronald Allen Sr.
- Corporal Glover J: Ivan Gonzalez. T: Richard Rettele.
- Bishop Casey J: Tommy Molina. T: Robert M. Gorham.
- Equally Good J: Ricardo Barrios. T: Robert M. Gorham.
- Kick The Breeze J: Rick Knott. T: Patrick J. Powers.
- Berry's Pride J: Luis Antonio Gonzalez. T: Laura Jackson
- With Wings J: Angel Ortega Stanley T: Scott Sowle
Wait Until Next Year…
6) Da’Tara: Almost certainly better than Guadalcanal. That’s about the best thing I can say about him.
OK, maybe not. In my defense, though, I did get the second and third-place horses correct.
It was pretty obvious by the midpoint of the race that Big Brown wasn't going to do it. He was stuck wide, but he couldn't get past Tale of Ekati, a horse he destroyed in the Derby, and he wasn't make any headway against D'Tara, a horse he crushed in the Florida Derby.
He was eased down the stretch, but he walked off the track and didn't seem to be in any pain. We'll see what develops over the next couple days, but hopefully he just had a bad day. I'm sure he'll never race again.
Belmont Pick
The horses of the Belmont, in post position order:
1) Big Brown: You might have heard of him. A perfect 5-for-5 in his career, and has never been seriously threatened in any of the races. The only question mark is a minor stress fracture in one of his hooves, but his connections swear it won't be a problem.
2) Guadalcanal: Like Big Brown, Guadalcanal is also perfect in his career - he's never won. I'm sure there's a reason for him to be in this race, but I have no idea what.
3) Macho Again: The good news is that he finished second in the Preakness. The bad news is that he was so far behind Big Brown that Kent Desormeaux had to look back through his legs to figure out where all the other horses had gone.
4) Denis of Cork: Finished third in the Kentucky Derby and might have been gaining slightly on Big Brown at the end. Slightly. Maybe.
5) Casino Drive: I'm writing this at 6:30 Friday evening. At this point, Casino Drive is still expected to race despite the discovery of a stone bruise on his back left foot. I've written about him before, and on paper he's clearly Big Brown's toughest challenger. However, he's looked terrible in two workouts, and now there's the news about the bruised foot.
6) Da'Tara: Almost certainly better than Guadalcanal. That's about the best thing I can say about him.
7) Tale of Ekati: He's won twice at Belmont, including a nice performance in this spring's Wood Memorial, but he might need a golf cart to go a mile-and-a-half.
Anak Nakal: Name is still not a palindrome. Horse still hasn't won in 2008.
9) Ready's Echo: Got smoked by Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes. Doesn't figure to do any better this time.
10) Icabad Crane: Finished third in the Preakness. SEE ALSO: Again, Macho.
A week ago, I was planning to pick Casino Drive, but Big Brown seems to be training well despite his injury and Casino Drive has looked awful. My computer model picks CD, but that's mainly because Desormeaux throttled BB down so much at the end of the Preakness that his final time was slow.
But now, with Casino Drive at less than 100 percent, I'm thinking it is silly to pick against Big Brown. Barring something catastrophic, he's just easily the best horse in the field.
- Big Brown
- Denis of Cork
- Anak Nakal
Monday Wrap on Tuesday
Pistons-Celtics: There's No Such Thing As Momentum
People always talk about which team has the momentum in the NBA playoffs. It doesn't matter. At all. The Pistons were supposed to have it after ending Boston's unbeaten record at home in Game 2, and Boston won Game 3. That meant the Celtics had it, since they had gotten the road-game gorilla off their backs, but then they lost Game 4.
So I suppose now the Pistons have it, right?
Three things matter in the NBA postseason - home court, energy and shooting. Yesterday, the Pistons were at home, played hard - especially Antonio McDyess and Jason Maxiell - and made shots. That's why they won the game.
Speaking of McDyess, it is great to see him playing so well. He's a good guy, and he's come back from horrific injuries to both knees. This was someone that was one of the 10 best players in the NBA, and he basically lost three seasons to knee injuries, and has worked incredibly hard to get back to where he is now. Unlike the rest of the Pistons core, he doesn't have a ring, and he desperately wants one.
Red Wings-Penguins: Shoot The Puck!
In the hockey playoffs, there is a type of momentum that matters - the hot (or cold) goalie. Right now, the Penguins don't look like they could score on Chris Osgood if the NHL let them have three pucks. Actually, if the Pens did get three pucks, they would just immediately turn all of them over to the nearest player in a red jersey, so I guess it wouldn't matter.
Marc-Andre Fleury is looking a bit rattled in the other net, but can you blame him? At this point, he knows that his only chance of winning to keep the game 0-0 until the ancient Red Wings like Nick Lidstrom and Chris Chelios have to go to bed.
Tigers: Consistently Inconsistent
Speaking of endless 0-0 games, the Tigers lost 1-0 in 13 innings to the Anaheim California Angels of Los Angeles last night, meaning they've now scored one run in 24 innings. The Tigers are averaging a decent 4.9 runs in their last 14 games, but 49 of those came in the three wins against Seattle and the 19-3 blowout of the Twins.
Ron Gardenhire said last week that the Tigers remind him of "piranhas", but I think he had the wrong animal. They are more like pythons. They can devour massive amounts in one gulp, but they are only hungry once a week.
Horse Racing: Daytona Is In California?
There were three major races on Memorial Day - the Gamely and the Shoemaker at Hollywood Park, and the legendary Met Mile at Belmont.
The Shoemaker was supposed to decide the West Coast's best turf horse, and Daytona made a pretty good argument for himself. He sat behind Ever A Friend for most of the race, then kicked by him in a tough stretch duel.
Daytona won the Hollywood Derby in November, but people were impressed by Ever A Friend's win in March's Frank Kilroe Mile, so this was supposed to the championship match. If it was, Daytona won a unanimous decision, and now he appears headed for a showdown with Kip DeVille in October's Breeders Cup Mile.
Diamond Diva tried to steal the Gamely by jumping out to a big early lead, but Precious Kitten ran her down in the stretch. Diamond Diva did finish second, which is a nice finish given the presence of major-winner Ruthierenne.
In the Met Mile, Commentator got into a speed duel with First Defence, and Divine Park took advantage by blowing by both of them in the stretch. Commentator is unbeatable when he gets a comfortable early lead, but at 7, he can't handle sustained pressure duels.
Cricket: Aussies Hang On
The Australians won the First Test against West Indies on Monday when they bowled them out for 191 to win by 95 runs.
Why is this important? Because I had told Justine Larbalestier that watching the Test would be something fun and relaxing, because there was no way her beloved Aussies could lose. I looked like an idiot when they were at 18-for-5 in their second innings, but they recovered to 167 and bowled out the Windies with time to spare.
When you are trying to impress famous authors with your witty cricket comments, it helps if they don't blow up in your face, so well done, Australia.