Breeders’ Cup – Turf & Classic
Well, the system didn't do too well with the Fake Dirt Mile. It did have Furthest Land as its fourth highest-ranked horse, but it really thought it was a two-horse race. Mastercraftsman looked sure to win with 200 yards to go - he was flying up along the rail - but he just stopped and finished third. Bullsbay got stuck in traffic and was never a factor.
Now comes the two biggest races of the weekend - the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Unfortunately, this isn't a great year for the Turf. The best European horse, Sea The Stars, has already been retired to stud. The second-best, Rip Van Winkle, is in the Classic.
So that leaves Conduit. He won this race on the same track last year, and he appears to be much better than anyone else in this field. Monzante is probably the best long-shot pick in a seven-horse field.
Then comes the Classic. This could have been the most-anticipated race in decades - European superstar Sea The Stars vs. filly megastar Rachel Alexandra vs. undefeated mare Zenyatta vs. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird vs. Belmont winner Summer Bird.
As I mentioned, Sea The Stars is already at stud, and Jess Jackson is giving Rachel Alexandra the rest of the year off after what is probably the best year a 3-year-old filly has ever had. So now we've got the Birds vs. Zenyatta, with an added bonus of the horse that's been chasing Sea The Stars home all year, Rip Van Winkle.
Mine That Bird won the Derby, finished second to Rachel in a thrilling Preakness and third in the Belmont, but hasn't looked good since. Zenyatta's record is easy to read: 13 races, 13 wins. But she's never faced a male horse in her career, and she's never run the speed figures that Rachel put up in her magical summer. I suspect she's in way over her head here.
Rip Van Winkle is very good, and European horses do better on the California synthetic dirt than they do on the real stuff, but there's a reason he's been chasing Sea The Stars all year. He's a step below the Euro superstars, and he's supposedly got a sore foot.
Einstein is my favorite horse - he's been great for a couple years and he can win on every surface. If I were betting, I'd have $2 on him, partially out of sentiment, and partially because he's still a very good horse.
Gio Ponti is probably America's best turf horse. This race isn't on turf.
Quality Road and Twice Over are very intriguing long shots. Quality Road has been close behind Summer Bird in his last two races, and Twice Over has looked very good in Europe since a 7th-place finish in May in a field that included Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle *and* Conduit.
But there's an outstanding horse in this race, and thanks to all the money being dumped on Zenyatta, he's also a good bet. Summer Bird won the Belmont, but that was just the first act of his summer. Since then, he's run in three big races - the Haskell, the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He came out with two wins and a second, and the second was to Rachel Alexandra.
Rachel's back east in her barn today, so I think Summer Bird is the best bet.
Monday Wrap: State of the Sports City
Detroit Red Wings (lead Stanley Cup finals 3-1)
Barring both a massive collapse by the Red Wings and a sudden revival of the Pittsburgh offense, Detroit is going to win its fourth Stanley Cup in 11 years, probably tonight.
It's going to be very strange to see Nick Lidstrom raising the cup instead of Steve Yzerman, but Nick deserves the moment. He's one of only five guys that will have been on all four championship teams - Lidstrom, McCarty, Draper, Holmstrom and Maltby, and McCarty was gone for a while in there.
By the way, how great a story is Chris Osgood? The Red Wings ran him out of town for Dominik Hasek, then brought him back to be Manny Legace's backup, and then went with the 97-year-old Hasek again. Until a month ago, Ozzie hadn't been Detroit's first-choice goalie in seven years. Now he's not only going to win the Stanley Cup, he's probably going to win the Conn Smythe.
This also has to firmly cement the Red Wings as the #1 team in town. The argument for a while was that the Pistons had supplanted them in the last few years, but now you'll have the Wings back on top with the Pistons unable to even make the finals.
Detroit Pistons (eliminated by Boston in Eastern Conference finals)
Six years in the Eastern Conference finals, but still only two trips to the finals and one title. If Rick Carlisle got fired when he couldn't get a young version of this team over the top, what happens with Flip Saunders? He's had three shots, and they've all ended badly.
That said, this season has to be measured as a success for the Pistons. Remember, in November, people were picking them to finish third in the division, behind Chicago (Doug COLLINS?!?) and Cleveland. They were an old team that was getting older and didn't appear to have any bench at all. So, if nothing else, this year is a positive because of Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell and, to a lesser extent, Amir Johnson and Arron Afflalo.
So now what? Sure, they could fire Flip, but there's not exactly anyone out there that is going to be a huge improvement. Did I mention that Doug Collins just got another job? Chuck Daly isn't coming through that door.
That means you have to break up the core, and how does that work? They'd be insane to trade Chauncey Billups or Tayshaun Prince, and I think Rip Hamilton means too much to the chemistry. Antonio McDyess has the knees of a 97-year-old man, so you won't get anything for him.
That leaves, as usual, Rasheed Wallace.
The problem with trading Rasheed is the "what if" factor. Even in his 30s, there's no question that he could be one of the 10 best players in the NBA if he wanted. He's 6'11", he can play with his back to the basket and he can shoot 3-pointers, and he's a great defender. You don't ever want to give up a player like that, because you're afraid that the next team will find the switch that gets him to turn it on for more than two games in a row. It's the same reason that teams keep picking up Darko Milicic.
I don't think Flip is going to get Rasheed to step up, and I don't think there's a coach available who can do it. So I think you've got to try to trade him. He's a Philly guy, and he's played for Maurice Cheeks before. How would he look in a 76ers uniform?
Detroit Tigers (24-32, six games behind Chicago)
The Tigers have gone from bad to boring. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, which is better than what they were doing, but still not going to make any impact on the pennant race. If they can get their acts together, they can still make a run at the division - it isn't like the White Sox or Twins are actually good.
The fabled offense is still not producing. Magglio Ordonez is having a fantastic season, and Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen have been very good offensively. Placido Polanco has been OK, and everyone else has been awful. Ivan Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria are combining for about a .300 on-base percentage, which is completely unacceptable, and Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge aren't much better, although they are at least hitting for a little power. Gary Sheffield might as well retire - he's a smart player, but his body has given out.
The other problem with Detroit's everyday players is that their defense is horrific. Cabrera and Guillen have both been disasters at third base, which means, to the delight of Brandon Inge and the disbelief of everyone else, he's going back to third. Guillen is now going to play leftfield, which should be entertaining, while Cabrera will continue to not care about defense at first base. Luckily for both of them, they are good enough offensively that it doesn't matter that neither of them can field.
The pitching staff has shown a few signs of improvement. Justin Verlander went 1-4 in May, but with a 3.92 ERA, and Armando Galarraga is still pitching like a decent #5 starter. On the other hand, Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman had a combined ERA of about 5, and Dontrelle Willis looked terrible in the one inning he's managed to pitch since coming off the DL. His start on Tuesday could be huge.
Detroit Shock (5-1, 1st place in the Eastern Conference)
Although no one has noticed, the Shock have been playing for two weeks now, and doing pretty well. They've gone 5-1 even though their best two players - Cheryl Ford and Deanna Nolan - are playing at well under 100 percent. Nolan hurt her ankle in Russia and Ford is still recovering from last year's knee injury.
Nolan's injury is related to the WNBA's dirty little secret - the basketball isn't any good. Let me be very clear about this. I'm not saying that women's basketball is bad. It isn't the same as men's basketball, but it can be very entertaining when played at a high level. I'm saying that the WNBA is no longer a high-level women's basketball league - it's a vanity exhibition league that makes the NBA feel better about itself.
The best players in the WNBA aren't making their money in the United States - they are making a lot more playing overseas from October through May. That's why you get Nolan showing up a few days before the season starts, having missed most of training camp and already injured. It's hard to blame her, when she's making big money in Russia and less than $100K in the WNBA.
So, instead of the crisp, fundamental game that women's basketball can be, you get a sloppy mess between teams that haven't practiced together, filled with exhausted players. Nolan hasn't had an offseason since she left college. You end up with games with teams shooting 30 percent and combining for more than 40 turnovers in a 40-minute game.
It will get better as the season goes on and teams get a chance to practice, but then there's the month-long break for the Olympics. That's going to help the Shock, since Katie Smith is the only Detroit player going to Beijing, but it kills any momentum that the league might have found.
It's a shame, because I enjoy covering the Shock, and I'd love to see it succeed. My stepdaughter is a huge WNBA fan, and it has provided us a way to bond, but they've got to find a way to attract fans that are older than 13.
Of course, she'd also be happy if the Shock would stop trading away her favorite players. She won't even go to Wednesday's game against Seattle, because it is "too confusing" for her to have to deal with Swin Cash in someone else's uniform.
Detroit Lions (offseason)
Training camp is two months away. Until then, there's not a whole going on.
Female Hall of Famers
There are currently 11 women in the Michigan Sports Hall of Fame, a ridiculously small number. I've just been appointed to a Special Task Force to try to discover women who have been overlooked.
Here's the list of inductees:
- Marion Ladewig
- Jean Hoxie
- Ann Marston
- Jeanne Omelenchuk
- Shelia Young-Ochowicz
- Micki King
- Peaches Bartowicz
- Kathy Aredensen
- Shirley Muldowney
- Julie Krone
- Diane Laffey
Meg Mallon and Aleta Sill go on the ballot this year. I'm going to push for Tara Lipinski as an obvious choice, but now I'll be doing some serious research.
Sexism, Chivalry or Reality?
I've been doing an experiment today - I'm asking people to name four horses that broke down on the track in the last 40 years. Everyone comes up with the same three names - Barbaro, Ruffian and Eight Belles - and the fourth is split between blank looks and Go For Wand.
So four high-profile breakdowns in 32 years, and three of them are fillies. I can think of four possible reasons for that:
- Fillies are inherently weaker
- Fillies shouldn't be racing against colts
- People care more when a filly breaks down
- Sheer coincidence
I suspect the answer is made up of a significant amount of #3 and a whole lot of of #4.
There's probably some scientific validity to #1 - fillies do tend to be smaller than colts - but I don't think it plays any major role in this. After all, Ruffian was a large filly and Eight Belles was one of the biggest horses in the Derby this year. Also, there's no evidence that fillies break down more often than colts.
The second reason seems meaningless. Yes, Ruffian was in a match race against a colt and Eight Belles was racing in the Derby, but that's twice in 32 years. Go For Wand was in the Breeders Cup Distaff, and fillies like Winning Colors, Genuine Risk and Rags to Riches have won Triple Crown races without any ill effect.
I do think the third reason has a lot of validity. If Ruffian had been a colt, there would have never been a match race, and there certainly wouldn't have been a movie. People remember Eight Belles and Go For Wand, but what about Prairie Bayou breaking down in the 1993 Belmont after winning the Preakness? Or, although he survived, what about Charismatic breaking an ankle while trying to win the Triple Crown in 1999? No one mentions that, even with the touching scene of Chris Antley jumping off the horse and cradling the broken leg in his arms while waiting for help to arrive.
There's just a romantic kind of tragedy when a filly breaks down, especially when she's trying to beat the boys. Go For Wand wasn't doing that, but in her case, there was the incredible anguish of watching her getting up and try to finish the race with her ankle barely attached to the rest of her leg. That was 18 years ago, and I can remember it like it was yesterday.
Barbaro, obviously, wasn't a filly, but he is remembered as much as he is because of the aftermath of his injury. They spent eight months trying to save him - that's a whole season of 24 or CSI. If he had been put down on the track in Baltimore, he wouldn't have the same mythic quality.
(By the way, I'm using "filly" and "colt" correctly. All the horses mentioned in this post were 3-year-olds when they broke down. I can't think of what might be the best-known fatal injury to a horse that was older than three. George Washington broke down in last year's Breeders Cup Classic at 4, but who remembers that?)
Some of this is coincidence - three fillies out of four is a lot like three heads in four coin flips - but I think most of it is about romance and chivalry. Joan of Arc wouldn't be a saint if she had been John of Arc.