Motor City Sports

Well, the system didn’t do too well with the Fake Dirt Mile. It did have Furthest Land as its fourth highest-ranked horse, but it really thought it was a two-horse race. Mastercraftsman looked sure to win with 200 yards to go – he was flying up along the rail – but he just stopped and finished third. Bullsbay got stuck in traffic and was never a factor.

Now comes the two biggest races of the weekend – the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Unfortunately, this isn’t a great year for the Turf. The best European horse, Sea The Stars, has already been retired to stud. The second-best, Rip Van Winkle, is in the Classic.

So that leaves Conduit. He won this race on the same track last year, and he appears to be much better than anyone else in this field. Monzante is probably the best long-shot pick in a seven-horse field.

Then comes the Classic. This could have been the most-anticipated race in decades – European superstar Sea The Stars vs. filly megastar Rachel Alexandra vs. undefeated mare Zenyatta vs. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird vs. Belmont winner Summer Bird.

As I mentioned, Sea The Stars is already at stud, and Jess Jackson is giving Rachel Alexandra the rest of the year off after what is probably the best year a 3-year-old filly has ever had. So now we’ve got the Birds vs. Zenyatta, with an added bonus of the horse that’s been chasing Sea The Stars home all year, Rip Van Winkle.

Mine That Bird won the Derby, finished second to Rachel in a thrilling Preakness and third in the Belmont, but hasn’t looked good since. Zenyatta’s record is easy to read: 13 races, 13 wins. But she’s never faced a male horse in her career, and she’s never run the speed figures that Rachel put up in her magical summer. I suspect she’s in way over her head here.

Rip Van Winkle is very good, and European horses do better on the California synthetic dirt than they do on the real stuff, but there’s a reason he’s been chasing Sea The Stars all year. He’s a step below the Euro superstars, and he’s supposedly got a sore foot.

Einstein is my favorite horse – he’s been great for a couple years and he can win on every surface. If I were betting, I’d have $2 on him, partially out of sentiment, and partially because he’s still a very good horse.

Gio Ponti is probably America’s best turf horse. This race isn’t on turf.

Quality Road and Twice Over are very intriguing long shots. Quality Road has been close behind Summer Bird in his last two races, and Twice Over has looked very good in Europe since a 7th-place finish in May in a field that included Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle *and* Conduit.

But there’s an outstanding horse in this race, and thanks to all the money being dumped on Zenyatta, he’s also a good bet. Summer Bird won the Belmont, but that was just the first act of his summer. Since then, he’s run in three big races – the Haskell, the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He came out with two wins and a second, and the second was to Rachel Alexandra.

Rachel’s back east in her barn today, so I think Summer Bird is the best bet.