At The Break
47-47
That isn't exactly what Tigers fans were expecting from The Greatest Offense Ever Assembled, but that's what they've gotten. With 68 games to go, the Tigers are seven games behind the White Sox and eight games out of the wildcard spot. If Chicago just plays .500 from here on in, the Tigers will have to go 41-27 down the stretch just to tie.
Is that possible? Sure. In their last 68 games, the Tigers have gone 40-28, so they would only have to play as well as they have in the last three months.
Of course, that's assuming the White Sox play .500, and that the Twins don't stay hot. Neither of those is a given at this point. Ozzie Guillen has proven that he can get a young, hungry team to overachieve, and Ron Gardenhire is an expert at winning when no one thinks he has enough talent.
So the Tigers have to be thinking that they have to get to at least 90 wins to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. That means 43-25 or better after the All-Star break. How do they do it? I think it has to be with offense - there doesn't seem to be much reason to think the pitching is going to drastically improve.
The bad news for the offense is that several of the players that the Tigers expected to carry the offense have flopped through the first 94 games. The good news is that those same players have proven in the past to be capable of doing more.
Want an example? Edgar Renteria. Last year, he hit .332/.390/.470, and this year he's at .254/.301/.326. Last year was probably a fluke, but he's never had a season nearly this bad, so the odds are that he'll be somewhat better in the second half.
Other guys aren't as dramatically down, but there's still reason to expect improvement. Miguel Cabrera will probably be better. Magglio Ordonez should be healthy. Gary Sheffield might not be completely done.
On the other hand, the Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames thing is a little out of control. They might be a combined .265 hitter, but I don't really think they have 50-homer power, even as a platoon.
On the pitching side, Verlander appears to have his stuff back, but I'm not sure who else you can count on. Rogers is 93 years old, Robertson is the definition of average, the league is starting to catch up to Galarraga and, well, there is no #5 starter. Zumaya looks OK, but Rodney has been terrible, so that's not going to be the huge boost that people expected.
I still don't believe in the White Sox or the Twins, but the Tigers can't wait until September to get back into this. Leyland said Sunday that he wants to be within three games going into the final month, and I suspect that's a very good goal.