State of the Sports City
Detroit Tigers: (12-15, 3 games behind Chicago)
When the Tigers started 0-6, everyone started talking about 2003 - including me, but that was because AP paid me to do it - but this team isn't nearly that bad.
In 2003, there wasn't any talent. In 2008, there was a lot of injured and slumping talent. There's a big difference. Talented players get healthy and break out of slumps. Bad players just stay bad.
The injuries are getting better - after 25 games of patchwork lineups, they finally got the first-choice nine on the field together Sunday. Of course, The Great Nine promptly lost 6-2, only getting five hits off Jered Weaver, but they did beat the Yankees Tuesday in their second game together.
That said, having everyone on the field doesn't mean everyone is healthy. Gary Sheffield's shoulders are being held together with string, chewing gum and cortisone injections, and Placido Polanco's back isn't much better. Polanco went 4-for-5 Tuesday, boosting his batting average to a whopping .216, while Sheffield's homer helped him get all the way up to .164. There's no reason to think either player is going to get healthy without surgery - they are both going to be resting a lot and playing through a lot of pain. A lot of the season is going to depend on how well that goes.
Jacque Jones is hitting .185, but everyone knew he was going to be streaky. He looked like he had a hot stretch going last week, but his violent collision with the left-field wall seemed to kill that before it got rolling.
Ivan Rodriguez has to be a concern. There haven't been many catchers who have lasted 18 seasons - the position takes a huge toll on your back and knees - and he's been a below-average offensive player for a couple years now. He never walks, and most of his power is gone, so he's got to hit over .300 to be productive, and I'm not sure he can do that any more. This isn't the guy who hit .500 for a month in 2004 - the aging process has made sure of that.
The rest of the offense is fine. Curtis Granderson has been outstanding in his first week back from a broken hand, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are hitting .300 with walks and power, and Miguel Cabrera hasn't been far behind them. Edgar Renteria is like Rodriguez in that he doesn't give you much more than his batting average, but he's hitting .311, so that's fine. Brandon Inge might not be happy as a utility player, especially after the disaster of playing Cabrera at third, but he's among the team leaders in walks, and he's hitting the ball hard. When he can do that, given his ability to play centerfield, third base and catcher, he's valuable.
Unfortunately, while the offense is coming around, the pitching staff is still terrible. I'm fairly certain that it isn't a good thing that Armando Galarraga has been the unquestioned ace through the first month of the season. Great guy, and he might help the team out, but you can't count on him to pitch like Greg Maddux all season.
Kenny Rogers is 106 years old, and he was hurt all of last season, so it isn't a surprise that he's struggling. He looked better Tuesday against the Yankees - his first quality start since April 2 - but he still walked four guys in six innings.
I don't know what's going on with Justin Verlander. He's not throwing strikes - 18 walks and six hit batsmen in 36 innings - but he struggled with his control a bit at the beginning of last year too, walking 15 in his first 36 innings. This year, the control is worse, the strikeouts are down, and the hits are up. That turns a 2.79 ERA into 6.50 - a change from outstanding and terrible.
Jeremy Bonderman is the only starter with an ERA under 6, but that's mainly because he's given up a lot of unearned runs. I don't think he's ever going to be better than average - he just doesn't have the ability to harness all of his talent. Nate Robertson isn't walking people, but only because he's throwing batting practice, so no one wants to miss the chance to crush one of his pitches.
The bullpen? Todd Jones and Denny Bautista are a fairly decent late-inning combination, but the rest of the pen is terrible. It will help a lot if Fernando Rodney and/or Joel Zumaya come back at anything close to 100 percent, but I doubt that's going to happen this season.
So, a month into the season, what is the outlook for the Tigers? Despite the panic, I think they are in decent shape. The division is terrible, and the Indians are at least as messed up as Detroit. This team can still win 90 games, and 90 games will win the Central.
Detroit Pistons: (3-2 in first round of playoffs)
Welcome to Detroit Pistons basketball. With the exception of the strange shooting funk at the end of Game 1, this is what this team does. They play in second gear until they get in trouble, and then they "flip the switch" and try to save themselves with their superior talent.
That usually works against teams like the 76ers, but it gets them in trouble when they do it against teams like the 2005 Spurs, 2006 Heat or 2007 LeBrons.
Is it going to matter in this series? Nope. Young teams can steal games early in a series, before they realize what the pressure means (see also: HAWKS, ATLANTA), but Philly's last chance at actually winning died when they collapsed in the third quarter of Game 4. The Pistons will win Game 6 by 20.
Detroit Red Wings: (3-0 in second round of playoffs)
Your 2008 Stanley Cup champions.
Seriously, who is going to beat them? Colorado is down 0-3 and out of bodies. Dallas? Marty Turco has beaten the Red Wings twice in 17 games. Pittsburgh? Maybe, but Chris Chelios is older than the entire Penguins roster combined. They don't exactly have a lot of big-game experience.
Besides, it's over for another reason. Joel Quenneville has coached against the Red Wings in four playoff series - 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2008. For those of you playing at home:
- 1997 - Quenneville's team knocked out by Red Wings, who went on to win Stanley Cup
- 1998 - Quenneville's team knocked out by Red Wings, who went on to win Stanley Cup
- 2002 - Quenneville's team knocked out by Red Wings, who went on to win Stanley Cup
- 2008 - Quenneville's team down 0-3 to Red Wings, who went on ...
That note courtesy of Bob Duff of The Windsor Star, who also points out that in 1997, 1998 and 2002, there was also a horse that won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but not the Belmont. So, when Big Brown (not my official pick - that will come Friday) wins the Derby Saturday, you should bet the house on him in the Preakness, then bet on someone else in the Belmont.
Detroit Lions: (offseason)
The Lions haven't lost a game in months. They drafted players from Haiti, Hawaii, Germany and West Point.
I'll get back to you in August.
Detroit Shock: (training camp)
If Pee Wee Johnson hits the shot at the end of Game 4 of the Finals, or if Bill Laimbeer lets Swin Cash onto the floor, the Shock would be coming into the season looking for a three-peat and a fourth championship since 2003.
Instead, the season came to an ugly finish with the blowout loss in Game 5 and the inevitable end of the Laimbeer-Cash relationship. Cash is now in Seattle, along with Sue Bird, Lauren Jackson and Sheryl Swoopes, which will make the Storm the most recognizable team in league history, even if they might not actually be all that good.
The Shock should make a run at the title again this year, because they aren't going to be dealing with Olympic hangovers for their top players. Katie Smith might go to Beijing, but it doesn't appear that Cheryl Ford or Kara Braxton are in the picture, and Deanna Nolan's odd Russian flirtation seems to have knocked her out of the American system.
MVP
I've seen a bunch of columns this week where writers pick their MVP, including ESPN.com's survey of their dozens of basketball writers/statgeeks/ex-players.
And there's one name that I've barely seen mentioned: Chauncey Billups.
Maybe I'm a homer, since I cover him 50 times a season, but the stats agree with me. He's an efficient scorer, he has a fantastic assist-to-turnover ratio, and he's a good defender. He took Gilbert Arenas out of the game the other night - I know Agent Zero isn't 100%, but he was helpless against Billups' size and strength.
Is he as good a player as Kobe Bryant or LeBron James? No, he's not. He couldn't do what they d0 - carry a less-talented team on his back - but Kobe and LeBron wouldn't be able to fit into Detroit's team concept as well as Billups.
Do I think Billups is the MVP? No, but I think he has to be in the discussion.
So do LeBron and Kobe, but I'm not voting for them, either. They share a similar flaw - they put up incredible numbers, but they do it by dominating their offenses to an unhealthy extent. On paper, the Lakers have a roster that would let Kobe become that killer team player, but they haven't been able to keep Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum healthy.
Dwight Howard doesn't quite have the offensive game yet. He's one step away from becoming a dominant player, but he isn't there. Amare Stoudemire is the opposite - he needs to get just a little better on defense to become a serious MVP candidate.
Dirk Nowitzki gets hurt by the poor performance by the Mavericks.
Kevin Garnett would be a great choice for MVP. He's the best defensive player in basketball, he's a great leader, and he's been the biggest reason that the Celtics have gone from a joke to my pick to win the NBA title.
But I'm not picking him.
On June 28, 2005, the Milwaukee Bucks had the first pick in the NBA draft. They picked Australian center Andrew Bogut, who has gone on to be a perfectly mediocre center. My stats rank him as the 90th best player in the NBA.
The second pick went to Atlanta. They did about as well as Milwaukee, drafting the very average Marvin Williams. Utah, suspecting that Atlanta might have gotten a little confused, grabbed the best Williams in the draft - Deron. In three years, Deron Williams has become a poor man's Chauncey Billups - great ballhandler, good shooter, decent defender.
With the fourth pick, New Orleans did what Atlanta and Utah should have done. They picked Chris Paul.
CP3 and the Hornets spent two years in Oklahoma City because of Katrina, but they were back for good this year, and Paul blossomed into a superstar. The Hornets have won a franchise-record 56 games and the first division title in team history, even counting their days in Charlotte, and none of that is possible without Paul.
He's the best point guard in the NBA, without question, and he's made his teammates much better. This is a team relying on role players like David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler, but Paul's influence has made those three guys look like stars. That's the definition of "Most Valuable Player."
- Chris Paul, NO
- Kevin Garnett, BOS
- Amare Stoudemire, PHX
- Chauncey Billups, DET
- LeBron James, CLE